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Average home price to end the year 4.8% lower than 2022, will rise 4.7% in 2024: CREA

Forecast also sees the number of homes sold to be down slightly this year compared to last
A new home is shown for sale in a housing development in Ottawa on Tuesday, July 14, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

The Canadian Real Estate Association expects the average price of a home to end the year 4.8 per cent lower than 2022, but says prices will rise by roughly the same amount in 2024.

The association’s prediction revealed Friday amounts to an average price of $670,389 this year and $702,214 next year, when prices are expected to increase by 4.7 per cent.

The board also foresees home sales falling 1.1 per cent to 492,674 this year and then rising 13.9 per cent to 561,090 in 2024.

The forecast accounts for little change in month-over-month sales seen since summer 2022 and the modest monthly gains recorded in February and March, as buyers edged closer to make purchases.

“As the spring market heats up and it looks as though some buyers are coming off the sidelines, it’s important to remember that the intense market conditions of recent years have not gone anywhere, they’ve just been on pause,” said Jill Oudil, CREA’s chair, in a press release.

The market Canadians are re-entering has seen months of falling sales, lower listings and dampened buyer sentiment as eight successive interest rate hikes weighed on the cost of borrowing.

But in recent months, the rate has been held twice in a row, prompting some to eye purchases once more, while prices are still low.

These trends left March home sales down 34.4 per cent to 41,636 from the year before.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, sales reached 33,833, about one per cent higher than they had been in February.

But new listings remain at 20-year lows, said CREA.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, new listings totalled 53,298 in March, down 5.8 per cent from February. Actual new listings hit 68,597, a 27.4 per cent drop from a year ago.

“With buyers re-entering a market with historically low supply, homes are not only selling but selling faster,” Oudil concluded.

However, prices have yet to heat up to the peak levels seen last year.

The average home price was $686,371 in March, down 13.7 per cent from the year prior.

Excluding the Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver Areas, which tend to be the country’s hottest markets, from the calculation cuts more than $136,000 from the national average price.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the average home price ticked up two per cent from February to $648,088.

CREA also said the average price was up almost $75,000 from its January 2023 level.

—Tara Deschamps, The Canadian Press

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