Hundreds of cellphones were raised in the air Saturday, Dec. 2, 2017, as supporters tried to capture a picture of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as he made his rounds at Semiahmoo Secondary. (Aaron Hinks photo)

PBO sets budget baseline for campaign vows with tools, deficit projections

Parliament’s spending watchdog estimates that federal books will be in the red by $20.7 billion this year

Parliament’s spending watchdog is predicting years of deficits deeper than the government has laid out.

The numbers are in a report the parliamentary budget office says should set the baseline for the campaign promises parties will dangle in front of voters this fall.

WATCH: Five highlights in the 2019 federal budget

The PBO estimates that federal books will be in the red by $20.7 billion this year and bottom out at a deficit of $23.3 billion the year after, before improving to a $12.5-billion deficit by 2022.

The numbers are better than the PBO predicted in April but worse than the figures in Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s pre-election budget that forecast deficits between $19.8 billion and $12.1 billion.

The estimates and a new online costing tool are part of PBO efforts to prepare for its role as an independent auditor of each party’s spending plans in the upcoming election campaign. The watchdog office plans to post cost estimates of campaign promises as the parties announce them before and during the campaign.

The report is likely to make it more difficult for any party to cook its own projections and also makes it difficult for any party to promise a quick return to balanced budgets.

Still, the PBO offers one possibility for making up some of the shortfall in a separate report detailing how much the government loses to tax evasion, to overseas tax havens, and through tax avoidance through legal loopholes that contravene the spirit of income-tax laws.

The difference between what is collected and what could be collected absent tax-evasion schemes is known as the “tax gap.”

The Canada Revenue Agency, in a report earlier in the week, pegged the lost take in federal corporate income taxes in 2014 at between $9.4 billion and $11.4 billion. But by looking at electronic transfers into and out of Canada, as well as special tax filings, the budget office gives a “hypothetical” estimate that $25 billion might have been lost in corporate tax revenue.

What the PBO was more certain of is that money flowing between Canada and countries known to be tax havens was “disproportionately large.”

“One thing is clear — we need greater transparency on corporate finances and financial flows, including who owns what companies,” said Toby Sanger, executive director of Canadians for Tax Fairness, in a statement.

The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Just Posted

Wayne’s World: We’re in a climate emergency, let’s act like it

Wayne Stetski MP, Kootenay-Columbia One of the issues I hear about most… Continue reading

Crazy Senoritas coming to Revelstoke

They will be performing at the golf course on Aug. 23

Revelstoke Museum raising funds to create Washed Away film

The film will be about the displacement of people from the damming of the Columbia River

Revelstokian calling on the city to clean up the Columbia River

The letter writer submitted several photos of the mess along the river bank at Centennial Park

VIDEO: Missing teens named as suspects in three northern B.C. killings

Kam McLeod and Bryer Schmegelsky are wanted in the deaths of Lucas Fowler, Chynna Deese, unknown man

Central Okanagan motorcycle crash causes two impaired driving investigations

The driver’s injuries, although serious, are not believed to be life-threatening in nature

B.C. rail crossing death highlights risks for people in wheelchairs: watchdog

Transportation Safety Board points to ‘persistent risks faced by persons using assistive devices’

Kelowna baby snatcher pleads guilty

Harold Giffen Clarkson Nyren is sentenced to two years probation

BC Cancer Agency refuses to release audit’s critical findings, but discloses ‘positive’ findings

Information and Privacy Commissioner asked to review redactions of cancer agency’s triage audit

B.C. teens wanted in double homicide, suspicious death spotted in Manitoba

Kam McLeod and Bryer Schmegelsky were thought to have been seen in the Gillam area

Vehicle collides into Okanagan home and drives away

Fencing, landscaping suffer significant damage and minor injury to house on Vernon’s Okanagan Avenue

Big Wreck announces two Okanagan shows

The American-Canadian band will be playing in Vernon and Kelowna on Oct. 29 and Nov. 3

Kelowna paddling team raises breast cancer awareness for 20 years

“Bust ‘N Loose” cancer survivors take on the waters worldwide for breast cancer research

Most Read