Editorial: Political polling predictions

it’s anyone’s guess what the next federal leader is going to look like on October 20th.

Less than a month to go before Canada’s federal government is decided and it’s anyone’s guess what the next federal leader is going to look like on October 20th.

According to the latest Ipsos Reid national poll at www.electionalmanac.com on Monday, September 21st, the Liberals had surged ahead.

Meanwhile, on Poll Tracker just before The Echo’s Monday press deadline, the Conservatives were leading with 30.5 per cent support and seat projections at 126, with the NDP having lost their lead, dropping to 29.8 from 31.1 per cent support.

Locally, the lay of the land in is a little less muddy. The ball in B.C. seems to bounce back and forth between Conservative and NDP courts with the Liberals trailing in third place. The most recent poll available on Election Almanac before The Echo went to press had the NDP way ahead of the pack in B.C. with 36 per cent support. And according to www.threehundredeight.com, the Kootenay-Columbia is one of the ridings predicted to hand its seat over to the NDP.

Since 170 seats are needed to win a majority and the numbers are revealing this to be an unlikely outcome given the tight three-way race this election is shaping up to be (and contrary to popular belief, pollsters randomly dial both land lines and cell phones as well as conduct online surveys). Since many experts predict Stephen Harper won’t stay in office long if he doesn’t get a majority, Canadians can almost certainly expect a new leader, one way or another. Almost. The only poll that really counts is election day.

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